Changing World Order - Ray Dalio

1. Important empires typically lasted roughly 250 years, ±150 years, with big economic, debt and political cycles within them lasting about 50-100 years

2. Broadly speaking, we can look at big cycles in three phases: 1) the ascent phase, which is characterized by the gaining of competitive advantages; 2) the top phase, which is characterized by sustaining the strength but eventually sowing the seeds for the loss of the competitive advantages and 3) the decline phase, which is characterized by self-reinforcing declines in all strengths of the economy

3. Of the ~750 currencies that have existed since 1700, only ~20% remain, and of those that remain all have been devalued

4. Governance between countries is very different from governance within countries. That is because within countries there are laws and standards of behavior that govern, whereas between countries raw power matters most, and laws, rules, and even mutually agreed treaties and organizations for arbitration such as the League of Nations, the United Nations, and the World Trade Organization don't matter much. Operating internationally is like operating in a jungle in which there is survival of the fittest and most anything goes. That is what makes having a strong military so important.

5. Is it reversible?

   1. Most world powers that experience this cycle have their "time in the sun," which is brought about by the uniqueness of their circumstances and the nature of their character and culture (i.e., they have to have the essential elements to work hard and smart, be disciplined, become educated, etc.) and have their decline phases continue through them slipping into relative obscurity. Some do this decline traumatically, and some do it gracefully.

   2. From studying history we can see that reversing a declining power is very difficult because that requires undoing a lot that has already been done. For example, bringing one's finances to the point that one's spending is greater than one's earnings and one's assets are greater than one's liabilities can only be reversed by either working harder or consuming less, which is not easily done,

I won't lie, I didn't read this book with the full focus expected. I will reread this book in the future and make better notes.